OREANDA-NEWS. On 02 March 2009 was announced, that according to the NBU the surplus in trade of goods amounted to USD 0.2bn in 1M2009. This was related to the excess of exports (USD 2.5bn) over imports of goods (USD 2.3bn) during the period. Meanwhile, the surplus in trade of services amounted to USD 0.2bn in 1M2009, while income and current transfers showed surplus of USD 0.07bn. This resulted in Current Account surplus of USD 0.5bn in 1M2009. At the same time Net Foreign Direct Investment amounted to USD 0.2bn. Still there was a significant outflow in the Capital Account items, mainly related to the redemption of both corporate loans (USD 1.8bn) and Eurobonds (USD 0.4bn). The NBU reported Balance of Payments deficit of USD 1.8bn, which was financed from its International Reserves. Please note that on 23 February the State Statistics Committee (SSC) announced goods trade deficit of USD 0.6bn for 1M2009.

Millennium Capital considers the NBU statistics to be more realistic compared to those of SSC, since the NBU admits around 50%, y/y drop in imports vs. 33%, y/y drop announced by the SSC. This follows from the announcement of the State Tax Administration of about 62%, y/y drop of imports in the first half of January. Meanwhile, Millennium Capital sees no reasons for imports to accelerate significantly from the mid- to end- January. Despite the announced surplus, Millennium Capital sees the amount of exports to be insufficient to satisfy the demand for foreign currency. This, as well as the need to redeem foreign obligations contributed to imbalance in the foreign currency market and led to new wave of hryvnia devaluation. Millennium Capital forecasts similar dynamics of Balance of Payments in February-March 2009, while some acceleration of exports is expected since April 2009.

Millennium Capital is an integrated financial services provider. Established in 2000 by a group of professionals with solid background in securities and corporate finance, Millennium Capital is now one of the major investment banking institutions.