OREANDA-NEWS. April 8, 2009. The Economic Development Ministry estimated the decline in gross domestic product (GPD) at 7% in 1Q 2009, presidential aide Arkady Dvorkovich said. According to him, shrinkage of GDP will slow down in the second quarter, as already confirmed by preliminary March data.

The effect from the anti-crisis measures taken by the Russian government “will become fully visible by the end of 2Q 2009 and in 3Q 2009, and at that time some sectors could begin to recover in the second half of the year, as we noted,” said Dvorkovich.

Russia will run a budget deficit “of 8% or slightly higher” in 2009, the presidential aide pointed out. Amendments to the 2009 federal budget (under review at the State Duma) suggest the federal budget deficit would equal RUB 2.97 tn or 7.4% of GDP. In addition, the country’s GDP is projected to drop by 2.2%. A budget deficit taking into account quasi-fiscal spending (to be financed by the National Welfare Fund) will be equal to 8% of GDP.