OREANDA-NEWS. July 02, 2012. The technological change in the automotive industry with a growing share of alternative drive trains generally offers opportunities for jobs in the automotive sector. This is the key finding of the “ELAB” study, the first broad-based, practice-oriented analysis of the effects of technological change in the automotive industry on employment. “ELAB” stands for “Auswirkungen der Elektrifizierung des Antriebsstrangs auf Beschдftigung und Standortumgebung”, German for “effects of the powertrain electrification on employment and the business environment”. The study’s key findings were presented and explained today in Stuttgart by all parties involved in the project.

The study examines the employment impact of various “green” drive concepts, which from today’s perspective will be represented in the market in 2030. Based on four market scenarios – each with a different mix of the various drive concepts – predictions are made for employment opportunities in the entire automotive value chain. As a consequence the entire automotive industry will benefit from the findings of the study.

The research project was initiated by the General Works Council of Daimler AG and started in December 2010 together with Daimler, IG Metall Baden-Wьrttemberg (Industrial Union of Metal Workers) and the Hans Bцckler Foundation. The Fraunhofer IAO, the IMU Institute and the Institute for Vehicle Concepts of the German Aerospace Center were commissioned with the research.

Premises of the study

The researchers defined six different drive concepts and their components as essential for the future and examined them in detail: the mild hybrid, the full hybrid including its plug-in version, the so-called range extender, all-electric vehicles with battery or fuel cell as well as vehicles with combustion engines.

An exact forecast of the actual market development of future drive concepts by 2030 is not possible. For this reason the study bases the employment forecast on four different market scenarios; a likely reference scenario from today’s perspective as well as three extreme scenarios. In doing so, the study takes into account the uncertainty of the future development. Each scenario assumes a different speed of transition from the combustion engine to various “green” technologies.

Results of the study

All scenarios forecast a growing share of alternative drives and yet a continued significant market share of combustion engines. The coexistence of several different drive concepts will result in at least steady to intermittently rising employment in the industry as analysis of the studied value chain shows. The study finds that there may be profound changes within the value chain.

Since the complex development and production of electric cars is currently still characterised by market uncertainties, business and economic risks for manufacturers and suppliers also must be taken into consideration. The technological change will also lead to new production flows and technologies. Heretofore unused or completely new manufacturing methods will be employed. Employee qualification requirements will change accordingly. This profound change in the manufacturing job world means employer and employee representatives must define future employee skills and qualification requirements and anchor them in daily job routine by means of appropriate training and continuing education.

The study results now in hand offer all corporate, societal and political participants a sound basis for a continued proactive shaping of the change process and dialogue on this key issue for the future.