OREANDA-NEWS. Middle Eastern oil production is expected to decrease by 30 tb/d in 2014 to average 1.37 mb/d. The decline is driven by an anticipated supply drop from Syria, while production from Oman and Bahrain is likely to experience a minor increase.

Oman’s production is expected to rise by 20 tb/d in 2014 to average 0.96 mb/d. This is supported by enhanced oil recovery (EOR) at the Amal and Harweel projects, as well as Daleel developments. The new volume is expected to more than offset foreseen declines in mature producing areas.

 Bahrain’s supply is expected to rise by 10 tb/d in 2014 to average 0.20 mb/d, with support from the Awali project. Yemen’s production is estimated to remain steady in 2014, averaging 0.18 mb/d; the security situation is seen to limit the growth. Syria’s oil supply is projected to average 30 tb/d in 2014, as per the recently reported production figure, indicating a decline of 50 tb/d from the current year. This assumes that the ongoing political situation will continue in 2014. The risk to Yemen’s and Syria’s forecasts remains high, given ongoing security issues, as well as limited data. The forecast could encounter significant revision if the political situation changes in 2014 or actual production data is received. On a quarterly basis, the Middle East’s 2014 supply is expected to stand at 1.37 mb/d, 1.37 mb/d, 1.38 mb/d and 1.38 mb/d, respectively.