OREANDA-NEWS. September 04, 2013. This year, Estonia will see a temporary slowdown in economic growth, caused by the weakening of the economies of its main export partners and a drop in investments. Still, Estonia and the other Baltic States will see the fastest rate of growth in the European Union, and the current year’s slower than expected growth should be followed by growth of 3.3-3.5 per cent in the coming years.

“The Estonian economy is somewhat ahead of the European economic cycle – while the European economy is coming out of the recession, Estonian economic growth is already reaching a new slowdown which, at least according to estimates, will be relatively short-term. However, the second half of 2013 could be weaker than the beginning of the year. Global economic growth is led by the US, where the economy will grow in 2014–2015 by an average of 3.5 per cent. This also gives the Eurozone more chances to stabilise; however, a return to normality could, in Europe, take several years even in the case of a positive scenario,” Ruta Arumae, SEB Chief Economist, summarising the new forecast published today.

According to SEB’s forecast, the European Central Bank will implement additional stimulation measures to invigorate the economy and shall in December lower the interest rate to 0.25 per cent, where it will stay until the end of 2015.

SEB estimates Estonian economic growth to be 1.5 per cent in 2013, 3.3 per cent in 2014, and 3.5 per cent in 2015. Inflation estimates are 3.2, 2.5, and 2.6 per cent, respectively.
The SEB Nordic Outlook can be viewed in length here: sebgroup.com/Investor-Relations/Reports/Expert-reports/