OREANDA-NEWS. December 27, 2013. According to the annual study carried out Citibank’s consumer banking analysts, the Russian middle class will spend approximately 90 billion rubles in December 2013 on purchases for the New Year’s holidays.

At the same time, yearend spending growth is slowing and will only amount to 9% for the month (compared to the 25% growth seen in December 2012). The most popular spending categories ahead of the holidays are postal and courier services as well as wine stores and tea shops.

The December budget for middle class shoppers consists of largely the same core spending categories which are predominant throughout the year. For example supermarkets and food stores account for 12% of spending according to volume, clothing stores account for 11%, and airfare and home appliances – 6% and 5% respectively.

At the same time, the seasonal dynamic in interest in these categories is not uniform: some increase or remain close to average while others sharply decline. For example, spending on food products at supermarkets rises 29% in December while spending at clothing stores rises 14% from the annual average. Meanwhile, the amount of money spent on airfare declines by 17% from the monthly average for the year, as the spending peaks for airfare traditionally come in June and October.

At the same time, there is a sharp rise in the number of unordinary purchases in December which may not have a big impact on consumers’ pocketbook but which nonetheless stand out in the month ahead of the holidays. This year the top seasonal categories include the traditional categories of wine stores (where spending increases 78% compared to the monthly average for the year), postal and courier services (up 73%) and fitness club memberships (up 73%). Also in high demand this time of year are tea and coffee shops (67%) and, of course, toy stores (65%). The sharpest rise in spending (over 100%) is seen at stores which cater to collectors (coin collectors, in particular).

The share of online sales is forecast to rise 1.4%, which is within the study’s margin of error. The internet continues to be a popular resource for planning travel: airfare accounts for 33% of all online spending in December. Other top categories are tourism agency services (7%) and railroad tickets (6%). The internet is also a popular means for purchasing home appliances (4% of sales volume) and clothing (3%) as well as telecom services (4%). At the same time, all of these categories see a seasonal decline in December from the monthly average for year, with the exception of home appliances, where internet sales increase by 30%.

Residents of Moscow account for 62% of all sales via the internet, followed by residents of St. Petersburg – 26%, while the remaining cities account for 12% of the total online sales volume. Also notable is the fact that while the spending online ratio between genders is tilted in favor of men – 55% to 45%, there is less discrepancy here than in the overall credit card spending ratio, where men account for XX% of all spending. At the same time, growth in spending for the month of December among men is nearly twice the growth in spending by women. Analysts also note that the average spend of Russian middle class families December will be 9% higher per person than for those who are single: the average spend for a married person for the month of December is RUB 48,600.

“In December we traditionally see the sharpest rise in consumer spending on credit cards. However, this month is also something like a weathervane that reflects consumers’ optimism with regard to the coming year. So next year we expect to see more moderate growth, but growth nonetheless, in consumer spending,” said Yuri Topunov, Credit Card Business Manager at Citibank.

Statistical data on credit card spending of Citibank’s clients served as the basis for this study. The study analyzed the data for the period from the beginning of 2011 until December 2013 with a sample of at least 500,000 clients selected randomly. The sample only included men and women over the age of 22 with monthly income of at least RUB 9,000. The forecast for December 2013 was based on analysis of data for the first 11 months of 2013 and took into consideration the statistic trends over the past two years. A presentation of the results is available upon request.

*The study analyzed spending data in the following Russian cities: Moscow, St. Petersburg, Nizhniy Novgorod, Rostov-on-Don, Volgograd, Samara, Kazan, Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk and Ufa.