OREANDA-NEWS.   Non-OPEC Middle East oil supply is estimated to have decreased by 0.11 mb/d in 2013 from a year ago to average 1.36 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 10 tb/d over the previous MOMR. On quarterly basis, this region could produce an average of 1.40 mb/d, 1.32 mb/d, 1.36 mb/d, and 1.35 mb/d, respectively. Middle East oil output is forecast to produce 1.36 mb/d, following a downward revision of 10 tb/d since the last MOMR, but growth is expected to remain unchanged in 2014 compared with the previous year. 

On a quarterly basis, Middle East supply in 2014 is seen averaging 1.35 mb/d, 1.36 mb/d, 1.37 mb/d, and 1.37 mb/d, respectively. 

Bahrain’s oil output in the third and fourth quarter of 2013 has been revised up by 6 tb/d and 16 tb/d, respectively. Total production in 2013 increased by 20 tb/d to 0.22 mb/d. Production in 1Q14 was also revised up by 19 tb/d to stand at 0.23 mb/d. Yearly output in 2014 is seen declining by 10 tb/d to average 0.21 mb/d.

Oman’s supply in 2013 is estimated to increase by 20 tb/d to average 0.94 mb/d, unchanged from the previous estimation. Oman’s output is also expected to increase by 30 tb/d to average 0.97 mb/d in 2014.

Syria’s production is expected to drop by 0.12 mb/d in 2013 to average 60 tb/d. This downward movement is due to geopolitical factors. Syrian oil production is expected to drop by another 30 tb/d in 2014.

Yemen’s production in 2013 is expected to average 0.14 mb/d, a decrease of 40 tb/d from the previous year. Output in 2014 is expected to increase by 10 tb/d to average 0.15 mb/d, unchanged from last month’s report. However, continued attacks on infrastructure place the supply forecast at a high risk.