OREANDA-NEWS. Crude prices will continue to fall this year as crude inventories build, an International Energy Agency (IEA) official said today.

"The rebound so far looks like a temporary one. There's more room for declines," said Antione Halff, chief oil analyst for the IEA, adding that global crude stocks should continue to build.

Pressure on crude builds globally should stop by July as production cuts and cyclical demand kicks in, Halff said today at the Platts North American Crude Oil Summit in Houston, Texas.

At current rates, it will take seven weeks for US storage to top out, said Citi Group global head, commodities Edward Morse said.

"The next two months look like a very rocky road ahead for oil markets," Morse said, adding that May should be the weakest month of the year for crude prices. He expects 850,000 b/d of supply in the market to be removed by the end of the year.

Still, US shale oil "will actually come out a winner in the market," Halff said. He sees by 2020 light tight oil accounting for a larger share of the market than before the price drop. Low prices will push back growth rather than suppress it entirely, he said.

"Light tight oil will be quick to respond to price recovery on the way back."