OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings has assigned an expected rating to Shri Trust H 2015's pass-through certificates (PTC) as follows:

INR1.51bn Series A PTC due August 2019: 'BBB-(EXP)sf'; Outlook Stable

The rating addresses timely payment of interest and principal in accordance with the payout schedule in the transaction documents. The scheduled payout will be net of the distribution tax on the income distributed by the trust to the PTC holders. The final ratings are contingent upon the receipt of final documents conforming to information already received.

The transaction is a static securitisation of Indian rupee-denominated commercial-vehicle loans originated by Sundaram Finance Limited (SFL), which is also the servicer for the transaction.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

The rating and outlook reflect adequate external credit enhancement (CE) of 9.00% of the initial principal balance, and SFL's origination practices, servicing experience and expertise in collection and recovery of commercial-vehicle loans in India. The transaction is supported by a sound legal and financial structure.

The CE will comprise a first-loss credit facility (FLCF). The FLCF is expected to be in the form of fixed deposits with Axis Bank Limited (BBB-/Stable/F3) and Canara Bank Limited (BBB-/Stable/F3) in the name of the originator with a lien marked in favour of the trustee.

The CE is deemed sufficient to cover the commingling risks of the servicer and the liquidity for the timely payment of the PTCs.

Taking the revised data from India's Central Statistical Office as the new reference, Fitch forecasts India's GDP growth to accelerate to 8.0% in the financial year ending 31 March 2016 (FY16) and 8.3% in FY17. While plenty of policy initiatives will likely have a positive effect on real GDP growth, including structural reforms and some fiscal and monetary policy loosening, it will take time for such measures to have an impact on growth. The government continues to roll out reforms that are likely to support the investment climate in the longer run. The central government's budget, presented on 28 February 2015, showed a continuation of this process and included efforts to reduce infrastructure bottlenecks.

The agency has factored this macroeconomic outlook into its analysis and its base-case default-rate assumptions. The default rate, recovery rate and time to recovery, together with the portfolio's weighted-average yield, were stressed in Fitch's Asia-Pacific ABS cash flow model to assess the sufficiency of cash flow for timely payment at the current rating level.

No interest-rate or foreign-currency risks exist in the transaction, since both the assets and the PTCs are fixed-rate and are denominated in rupees.

The transaction comprises a seasoned portfolio, with geographical diversification in 18 Indian states. The collateral pool will be assigned to the trust at par, and as of 28 February 2015, it had an aggregate outstanding principal balance of INR1.51bn and consisted of 2,939 loans to 2,778 obligors. The collateral pool had a weighted average (WA) original loan-to-value ratio of 80.1%, a WA seasoning of 11.4 months and a WA yield of 13.15 %. As of the cut-off date, loans in the securitised pool were mostly current, with 6.8% of the pool classified as 1-30 days past due.

The pool was also diversified at the obligor level, with the largest obligor by outstanding loan representing 0.51% of the total pool. The pool comprised loans secured by heavy commercial vehicles (HCV) at 38.0%; light commercial vehicles (LCV) at 36.2%; medium commercial vehicles (MCV) at 16.3%; and small commercial vehicles (SCV) at 9.5%. Each asset type was also divided further into new and used vehicles, except SCV, which comprised new vehicles only.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Based on Fitch's sensitivity analysis, Fitch may consider downgrading the rating to 'BBsf' if the base-case default rate increases by 30%, or 'BB+sf' if the base-case recovery rate declines by 30%. The sensitivity analysis assumes that the CE and other factors remain constant.

The rating may be upgraded if the ratings of the credit collateral bank holding the FLCF deposit are upgraded to above 'BBB-' and the portfolio performance remains sound, with adequate CE that can withstand stress at above a 'BBB-sf' rating scenario.

At closing, SFL will assign commercial-vehicle loans to Shri Trust H 2015, which in turn will issue the PTCs. The PTC proceeds will be used to fund the purchase of the underlying loans.