OREANDA-NEWS. The Dutch market for owner-occupied homes is continuing to grow. Following a strong first six months of 2015, the market will continue to pick up throughout the rest of 2015 and into 2016. This year between 170,000 and 185,000 homes are expected to change ownership. In 2016 the growth in the number of house sales will stabilise, with between 170,000 and 190,000 homes expected to be sold. As the supply of homes on the market contracts, prices are likely to rise in 2015 by 2 to 3?% compared to 2014. Average growth of 2? to 4?% is expected next year. These are the views of the economists at Rabobank in their Dutch Housing Market Quarterly published today.

‘The stronger economic growth is important for the housing market’, says housing market economist Pieter van Dalen of Rabobank. ‘Rising employment generates higher average disposable income. Together with the low mortgage interest rates and high levels of confidence, things look promising for further growth.’ On the other hand, there are still a number of factors preventing even higher growth. Van Dalen: ‘A quarter of households have a mortgage that is higher than the value of the house, and house buyers can borrow less compared to their income and the value of the house. These restraining factors are however expected to have less effect on growth than the stimulating factors.’
 
Until recently the growth in the housing market was concentrated in the cheaper segment, particularly apartments. As house prices have been rising and mortgage rates have remained low, those moving up the property ladder have become more active in the market and the more expensive segment is now sharing in this growth. ‘Detached and semi-detached houses have recaptured some market share in the second quarter, during which house prices in the more expensive segment have also risen’, according to Van Dalen.
 
This growth in the housing market is not restricted to the Randstad. Every province recorded a rise in sales in the first half of this year compared to 2014, causing reduced supply everywhere in the housing market and rising prices in every province. However, according to Van Dalen there are some clear differences within the Netherlands. ‘Prices are rising particularly fast at present in the major cities. House prices in Amsterdam in the second quarter of 2015 were on average 8% higher than a year ago. But since prices in the city are still 6% lower than in 2008 and mortgage rates are low, even Amsterdam is more affordable than before the crisis.’