OREANDA-NEWS. In 2016, sales of passenger cars and commercial vehicles at best will remain at the 2015 level - 1.5-1.6 million cars, and at worst – they will fall to 1.2-1.3 million. This forecast was presented by the chairman of the committee of Automobile Manufacturers (AEB), Joerg Schreiber, at the congress of the association "Russian Automobile Dealers". The forecast is preliminary, he added. The result of the year - 1.57 million cars - will be worse by 37% than the last year, wrote the newspaper "Vedomosti".

Statistics of AEB diverges more and more with the accounting data of new cars by state bodies, pointed out Mr.Schreiber: in 2013, the official figures were 3.4% lower than in the AEB, and this year –already by 14.4%. AEB, he said, takes into account several factors, including the purchase of vehicles by citizens of neighboring countries. In 2016, one can hardly count on the influx of buyers even from there, says Mr. Schreiber.

However, the Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade, Alexander Morozov, recently gave a forecast for year - 1.5 million vehicles, among which 0.5 million will be sold by the program of state support. The car market will be restored gradually also without state support - a belief was expressed a few days ago by the Minister of Industry and Trade, Denis Manturov.

Accurate forecasts will depend on the results of November - December, said General Director of "Rolf", Tatiana Lukovetskaya. If the exchange rate is stabilized, then in 2016, we can sell 1.6-1.7 million cars, according to director of sales department of GC "Avtospetstsentr", Alexander Zinoviev.

In November - December of 2014 sales were phenomenal, and this year, not everyone, who planned to buy a car, did it - market opportunities are not used by 100%, and the same peg will allow manufacturers to reduce the price of cars, he believes.

From September of 2014 to October 1st, 2015 price tags increased by 24%, and for the last month until October 20th only 18 of the 46 officially represented in the Russian market carmakers did not change rates, estimated the agency "AUTOSTAT". "In case of incentives saving the market will be at the level of this year (1.6 million), in case of the absence of support it will continue the fall until 1.1 million vehicles", - said the representative of "Sollers".