Russia Will Remain the Main Gas Supplier to Europe Until 2040
OREANDA-NEWS Russia throughout the forecast period to 2040 will remain the main supplier of gas to the EU, despite a significant decline in demand for" blue fuel " in Europe, according to the forecast of the International energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook.
According to IEA forecast, the demand for gas in the EU will significantly decrease by mid-2020 and reach 408 billion cubic meters by 2040 (16.4% less than in 2017), but the fall in own production in the EU will lead to an increase in the share of imports to 86% by 2025.
"Russia will remain the largest gas supplier in the region and one of the cheapest, but this influence should weaken in a much more integrated European gas market, where buyers will have access to different sources of gas," the forecast says.
In General, the demand for gas in the world in the basic scenario of the IEA by 2040 will grow by 45% compared to 2017 year — to 5,399 trillion cubic meters, with the main growth will be in China and the Middle East. According to the Agency's analysts, demand in China will triple-up to 710 billion cubic meters, in the Middle East — will increase by 60%, to 794 billion cubic meters, in India — three times, to 171 billion cubic meters, in South-East Asia — 1.7 times, to 170 billion cubic meters.
Gas production in the world by 2040 will grow by 43% - to 5,399 trillion cubic meters, and shale gas will be half of the increase, and the share of traditional gas reserves in total production will decrease from 80% to 70%, predicts the IEA. It expects that until 2025 the main growth in shale gas production will fall on the United States, and then increase production will begin Canada, China and Argentina. Gas production in Russia by 2040 could increase by 16% and reach 805 billion cubic meters, according to the forecast.
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