Russia's Economic Growth in 2018 Exceeded Forecasts
OREANDA-NEWS GDP growth in 2018 amounted to 2%, according to the review of the Ministry of Economic Development "Picture of the economy".
This is higher than the Ministry predicted. The Ministry of Economic Development expected the economy to grow by 1.8% in 2018. Analysts expected the same result: according to the consensus forecast of 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg in December, GDP last year was expected to grow by 1.7% (back in November, analysts expected growth of 1.8%).
"The assessment of the GDP growth rate in the whole year was significantly influenced by the revision of the construction dynamics by Rosstat for 2017-2018, carried out in January. The most significantly changed data for 2018: according to the updated data, last year the volume of construction works increased by 5.3%, while the previous estimate for 11 months was +0.5% year — on-year," explained the Ministry of Economic Development in the review. The revision is related to the fact that the respondents clarified their previous information at the end of the year.
Dynamics of construction of the always volatile tells the macro analyst of Raiffeisenbank Stanislav Murashov: "the key point — in the bad raw data in forms that populate the enterprise." In addition, part of the data, for example on the construction of gas pipelines, can be recorded unevenly, and control them (unlike housing) can not. The dynamics of construction in 2018 logically should have deteriorated, Murashov notes: in 2017, the Crimean bridge and facilities for the world Cup were actively built, and in 2018, only the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, which is being built at the same pace as before, was left out of the mega-projects under construction.
The contribution of construction to the GDP growth rate in 2018 was 0.3 percentage points, although a year earlier it was negative (-0.1 percentage points), the Ministry of Economic Development noted. The acceleration of the economy was facilitated by the industry — its contribution was 0.6 percentage points, twice last year's result. Trade, services and agriculture have slowed growth.
The Ministry of Economic Development expects a slowdown in economic growth in 2019-against the background of VAT increase from 18 to 20% GDP growth rate will be 1.3%. In 2020, the figure will return to 2%, and then accelerate to 3%, the Ministry of Economic Development expects. The government plans to disperse the economy, including large-scale construction of infrastructure in the next six years.