The EBRD has Raised the Forecast for the Growth of the Russian Economy in 2021 to 4.3%
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has raised its forecast for Russia's GDP growth in 2021 from 3.3% to 4.3%, and in 2022 to 3%. This is reported in the bank's report "Regional Economic Prospects".
"Overall, GDP is expected to grow by 4.3% in 2021 and by 3% in 2022, unless there is a significant deviation from the recovery plan after the pandemic. However, the forecast is subject to a number of risks both for the better and for the worse, not least geopolitical risks, especially the risk of further sanctions, price volatility and changes in demand for oil and gas," the report says.
The Russian economy returned to the pre-pandemic level in the second quarter of 2021, the report says. The authors note the high activity in the mining industry and the rapid recovery of retail trade. Also mentioned are payments to some groups before the State Duma elections and measures to combat inflation, which became a record in September (7.5%). In addition, oil revenues are stable due to high oil prices.
The Ministry of Economy of the Russian Federation predicts the growth of Russia's GDP this year at the level of 4.2%. The agency raised its estimate compared to the July interim version of the forecast, which assumed the growth of the Russian economy by 3.8%.