OREANDA-NEWS. July 20, 2017. The US flat-rolled steel sheet market is expected to trade at or close to current prices for the remainder of 2017. Demand is expected to remain steady but supply-side uncertainty lingers as the market awaits the results of the US Commerce Department's investigation into the role of steel imports and their impact on national security.

Prices for hot-rolled coil (HRC) and cold-rolled coil (CRC) for the remainder of the year are expected to be higher than previous estimates, according to Morgan Stanley on 18 July.

Morgan Stanley raised its second half of 2017 HRC forecast by approximately $55/net ton (nt), while its cold-rolled coil forecast was up by $30/nt. HRC prices are estimated to be $615/nt and $630/nt for the third and fourth quarters, with CRC expected to be $790/nt and $805/nt over the same period, respectively.

Current HRC transaction prices are at $620-630/nt which suggests that Morgan Stanley expects the market to trade at current levels for the remainder of the year.

KeyBanc Capital Market maintains its second-half HRC index price estimate of $595/nt.

End-use market demand trends are expected to continue through the rest of 2017, as construction and the energy sector remain positive while concerns linger over slowing automotive demand. Construction related steel consumption is on track to reach KeyBanc's 2pc growth full-year 2017 target, according to analyst Phil Gibbs. Service centers said they are positive on the outlook through 2017, with one indicating pent-up demand from customers serving the construction markets because a lack of laborers.

The energy sector recovery is expected to stabilize after a noticeable pickup in demand through the first half of 2017. The US rig count is up by 43pc since the start of 2017. The 14 July US rig count of 952 is up by 113pc from the year-ago period but still well below the 2014 average of 1,862, according to Baker Hughes data.

One market source said his energy accounts were booked through October, despite shaky pricing in the sector. Weaker oil prices and increased imports of pipe and tube products are likely to moderate any further domestic increases in demand through 2017.

Automotive demand for the second-half of 2017 is expected to trend below 2016 levels, which could offset some of the increases in other sectors. One service center source expects car sales to deteriorate over the next 24 months. Dealer inventories remain high and the price of new vehicles hinders buying, he said. Nafta light-vehicle production during the second half of 2017 is expected to be drop by 3pc from 2016 and by approximately 5pc from the first half of 2017, according to KeyBanc.